Jose Fernandez doesn’t hit Free Agency until after the 2018 season but in all likelihood the Miami Marlins ace will command one of the richest pitching contracts in baseball.

Would Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan — who wrote a new book on pitching called “The Arm” — pay Fernandez upwards of $200 million?

“Absolutely not,” Passan said on the Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz. “The chances of Jose Fernandez getting re-injured again by the time that contract is over I would put as pretty significant and one of the things I learned doing this book was the greatest predictor of a future arm injury is a past arm injury. So we use the phrase injury prone. With pitchers it actually applies and history shows that.”

While he wouldn’t pay Jose a goliath deal, he would trust other pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner, guys “who have proven themselves as 200-inning pitchers for a half-decade.”

Considering Giancarlo Stanton’s backloaded $325-million deal truly starts to be felt in in 2018 when he’s due $25 million or more for each of the next 11 seasons combined with the Marlins’ propensity to rank in the cellar in payroll and then factoring in Jose clashing with Marlins brass, it’d be absolutely shocking to see Fernandez in Miami after the 2018 season.

🎙 Jeff Passan on Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz [ESPN]